Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.245126 1.412404 1.589497 1.790501 2.011852 2.247711 2.517567
2025-01-26 1.025512 1.256605 1.516384 1.828338 2.190973 2.597403 3.085451
2025-02-02 0.850963 1.123196 1.447163 1.857063 2.357479 2.943988 3.678458
2025-02-09 0.700027 0.995633 1.367831 1.863178 2.496606 3.270462 4.277297
2025-02-16 0.579873 0.888778 1.299989 1.874602 2.642276 3.616904 4.929911
2025-02-23 0.463619 0.768607 1.198656 1.829947 2.710701 3.871488 5.488319
2025-03-02 0.360054 0.648585 1.080544 1.747228 2.718409 4.046077 5.955786
2025-03-09 0.296408 0.577717 1.023100 1.742688 2.832259 4.370549 6.645880
2025-03-16 0.239481 0.506748 0.954895 1.712985 2.905425 4.642411 7.281307
2025-03-23 0.207659 0.473113 0.941408 1.765756 3.105200 5.108248 8.219743
2025-03-30 0.164758 0.409593 0.867741 1.711595 3.133426 5.322202 8.805679
2025-04-06 0.135120 0.365345 0.820853 1.695773 3.219471 5.626897 9.541807
2025-04-13 0.107875 0.320536 0.767950 1.667096 3.288845 5.921953 10.300530
2025-04-20 0.092520 0.298743 0.756283 1.711704 3.486059 6.432301 11.421614
2025-04-27 0.078600 0.276595 0.740233 1.746101 3.668562 6.931083 12.553791
2025-05-04 0.065272 0.251853 0.714230 1.757633 3.810827 7.372323 13.618477
2025-05-11 0.054420 0.230417 0.691687 1.773087 3.961171 7.836030 14.744040
2025-05-18 0.042708 0.201709 0.646167 1.733974 4.004212 8.117036 15.581413
2025-05-25 0.031846 0.170606 0.587592 1.657547 3.966453 8.252123 16.178578
2025-06-01 0.025833 0.154119 0.563548 1.655341 4.075402 8.654730 17.251174
2025-06-08 0.020231 0.136131 0.531101 1.628539 4.130778 8.961620 18.170836
2025-06-15 0.017595 0.129770 0.531177 1.680537 4.355155 9.593541 19.689580
2025-06-22 0.013236 0.112140 0.492411 1.629582 4.353935 9.799241 20.456689